PRO Chess League: Measuring CAPS Performance

What do these things have in common?

• Cream cheese and bagels
• Danny Rensch and Robert Hess
• PRO Chess League (PCL) and Computer Aggregated Precision Score (CAPS)

The answer: some of the most exciting combinations of all time.

Today we will look at the PRO Chess League and CAPS combination  The Chess.com statistics team has computed a CAPS value for each player in the PCL through the first eight weeks of the 2019 PCL season.

CAPS to PCL FIDE performance rating:

Using a nonparametric approach to the data since we have small sample sizes for each player, we will look at ranked CAPS vs ranked PCL FIDE performance rating for more than 350 players in the league. This gives us an idea of an approximate FIDE rating for each CAPS score.

Top teams:

Let's take a look at how the PCL teams have performed according to CAPS, and compare those statistics to their corresponding performance ratings. Team CAPS fall closely in line with team PCL points, and team FIDE performance rating. 

The Australia Kangaroos have an unexpectedly high CAPS score, tied for fourth in the league. Does this mean they could be a sleeper team for the playoffs?  The Dallas Destiny, on the other hand, have performed at the highest FIDE rating in the league at 2558, but ranks ninth in CAPS. It's also interesting to note just how strong the Eastern Division is with teams one, four and six according to CAPS.

The Baden-Baden Snowballs also stand out as an interesting team, with a much higher performance rating than their team CAPS.

How does team CAPS predict team FIDE Performance Rating?  Take note that the axes are flipped from the first chart.  For this next chart, the two team columns are separately ranked and then plotted.  Find a CAPS value on the x-axis and then look vertically up the chart to find an approximate FIDE Team Performance Rating.

Top PCL players (minimum 15 games):

Placing in the top spot according to CAPS is the 20-year old Polish grandmaster Jan-Krzysztof Duda. He had a spectacular 2018 Speed Chess Championship, taking down Sergey Karjakin and Alexander Grischuk. He placed second in the 2018 World Blitz Chess Championship, behind only Magnus Carlsen. 

Now he is killing it in the PRO Chess League with the highest CAPS out of all 350+ competitors.

Top player over 30 games:

The top player with more than 30 games is Wesley So!  Do you want to be an accurate, super-GM, CAPS all-star?  A good start is to become an expert in Wesley So's favorite opening.