5 Players Who Could Surprise Us and Rise to the Throne
Hello there, welcome to the Lightning Reports! So... an interesting topic today. Some of you may know this already, but I'm a huge NFL fan. I'm basically obsessed by now. I mean, I'm a chess master, and I'd rather watch football than chess. Easily. I even have an NFL-themed podcast. Do you get what I'm saying? 😅
Anywho, me being a football geek somehow translates to me vaguely keeping up with other sports, meaning I've watched some surprising things unfold in the NBA and NHL. NBA fans know what I mean as they've seen the 8th-seeded Miami Heat shock everyone on their Cinderella run to the NBA Finals. NHL fans are seeing it as well with the 8th-seeded Florida Panthers making a similar run to the Stanley Cup Finals. Heck, even college football fans saw that with the TCU Horned Frogs coming out of nowhere last season and, despite the so-called "experts" predicting they would lose week in and week out, they made it to the national championship game (although they um kinda got slaughtered by my Georgia Bulldogs, still they made it to the championship). These types of teams making it to the championship game is like the lowest-rated player in the FIDE Candidates tournament winning the FIDE Candidates tournament - nobody expects it, but they at least have a shot somehow.
My point is, we see a lot of underdog stories in sports, which everyone loves. And in the world of chess where Magnus Carlsen is no longer the world champion or even trying to be world champion, it feels more wide open than it has in years. So in this blog, I'll be naming 5 surprising players (some more surprising than others) who could earn a spot in the next FIDE Candidates Tournament, defy the odds and win it despite not being favored to do so, and then take down current World Champion Ding Liren. I'll even make a prediction at the end about who will be the next World Champion! Do keep in mind, however, that this is all just my opinion, just for fun, and there's a good chance that I'm wrong here. But if I end up being correct, I have all the bragging rights 😁 read on to see my 5 underdogs, my prediction for who the next world champion is, and why I think Hikaru Nakamura is the Jimmy Butler of chess 👀
There are a lot of players who you could argue are an underdog here... I'm only writing about 5 today, but there are many more. In any case, ranked in order of rating from lowest to highest, let's go ahead and get to number 5 on my list, a controversial figure we all know of by now...
Muahaha yes let's bring up this controversial GM. Hans Niemann? World champion? Sounds crazy, doesn't it... but hey, we're talking about underdogs, and Hans is a guy people have doubted and hated on for a while now. He wasn't exactly all that likable to begin with, and then last year we had that whole cheating controversy to make things even worse for him (click the image above to read up on that if you want). But... assuming he didn't cheat, look at his recent success. His rating gains over the past few years have been historic for someone his age (when you're rated 2478 FIDE at age 17, you aren't supposed to reach 2700 FIDE two years later, usually). He is currently rated 2708 and ranked 31st in the world. Oh and, as we all know by now, he managed to beat Magnus otb in a legit game.
If he continues to improve, it's realistic we see him get into the next Candidates tournament (Kirill Alekseenko, who is lower rated than Hans, once qualified for the Candidates tournament... just saying). And he can hold his own against the best of the best. It's possible. Likely? Nah. Possible? Interesting underdog story? For sure, for sure.
Besides, even if he stops improving... he'll always have stockfish 
(I'm jk I don't really think he cheated tbh lol)
Perhaps it's just me, but I don't see many people talk about Nodirbek when it comes to contending for World Championships. Although that is usually centered on the top 10 players. But still. Nodirbek has already found remarkable success in other championship formats such as the 2021 World Rapid Championship, and we're starting to see more of him in bigger events nowadays, like the Tata Steel Chess Tournament where he managed to defeat Magnus Carlsen and finish in a tie for second place with him.
This dude is younger than me by a few months (meaning he's turning 19 this year - 19!) and is already rated 2731 and ranked in the top 20 in the world. He is certainly capable of holding his own against the best of the best, and I certainly expect to see him make it to the Candidates tournament soon enough. It would be a surprise if he became world champion any time soon, however, given his young age, given that his competitors have more experience, and given that other players are... simply put... better than him right now. Good underdog, however, in my opinion. Just like he was an underdog when he took down Magnus in the game shown above. Watch out for this kid.
Right outside the world's top 10, we have Richard Rapport, who competed in the previous Candidates tournament but... did not do super well. He kinda sorta finished in last place. However, I think there's a strong chance we see him earn another chance there. Assuming he can learn from his experience there and continue to improve, I think he could become a trendy dark horse pick to win it and contend for the world championship someday. His interesting style of play, I believe, would help him a good bit (similar to how Nepo's generally aggressive style helps him), and I think he'll eventually earn a lot more fans because of that as well.
Some may argue he's not much of an underdog anymore since he's in the top 10 and competed in the previous Candidates tournament, but given that he was never truly contending last time, and given how few people seemed to consider him a real threat last time, I still believe he is more overlooked than others, and would not receive a whole lot of spotlight if he were to compete in the next Candidates tournament. I could be wrong on that, it's just my guess.
Ah, yes, Anish Giri, everyone's favorite draw master. An underdog to become world champ? Yes. Yes, I do believe so. Honestly, does anyone ever talk about Giri as a genuine threat to become the world champion nowadays? Maybe I'm missing something but from what I hear, the big 3 are Ding, Nepo, and Alireza (and some people still believe Magnus will return). I hardly ever hear about Giri. Perhaps because of all the draws? Who knows... but based on how he has been playing, it's not that hard to imagine him making it to the next Candidates tournament (which I fully believe will happen), winning it, and then defeating Ding Liren to become world champion. I could totally see that happening. He recently won the previously mentioned Tata Steel tournament and picked up a huge win over Magnus Carlsen along the way.
Nobody seems to be talking about it now, so let me put it out there... Anish Giri is a very real threat to become the next world champion. He's less of an underdog than the players previously mentioned here, but I would still consider him an underdog imo. We shall see what happens...
Ok, ok, I know, a whole legion of Hikaru fans just got triggered by me calling Hikaru an underdog here. I am ever so sorry. First, let me bring up what I said about the odds of him even playing in the world championship in my Previewing The Candidates blog. I said that "I am not among the many rooting for him or saying he will win. Far from it, in fact. I would be a bit surprised if Hikaru manages to win." This, of course, aged very poorly, as he finished in a tie for 3rd place and very nearly ended up in second place (which would have set up a Nepo-Hikaru world championship match, assuming Magnus still decides not to defend his title). So Imma go the other way here now and say... my opinion has completely changed since then as Hikaru has returned to otb chess, is now ranked 5th in the world with his 2775 FIDE rating, and clearly... despite literally not caring.... he's still got it. I ended up being very impressed by his results in the 2022 Candidates tournament. If he wants to compete again, he will earn his spot, and will probably be in everyone's top 5.
I am still, however, going to label him an underdog. Right now, Ding Liren, Ian Nepomniachtchi, and Alireza Firouzja are all going to be the more trendy picks to win it all (outside of all the Hikaru fans who will say Hikaru will win simply because they're fans - yay loyalty). I would even put Anish above him, to be totally honest with you. Many will agree, and many will disagree.
I... have an interesting comparison here, which I wanna hear opinions on from basketball fans who know more than me... but Hikaru is the Jimmy Butler of chess. That's my take. Older than their main competitors (in Butler's case, stars from the other teams), neither individual has ever gone all the way and won it all, both are pretty dang confident and, to some, arrogant, and both spent some time being forgotten in the sense that they weren't in talks of being contenders for the title and yet, both past the age of 33, here they are. Butler has a shot to be NBA champion soon, and Hikaru is a top 5 player who could absolutely become world champion if he goes for that. It's totally possible. I will make a bold prediction here.... if Hikaru decides to go for it, I predict he will compete in the next Candidates tournament, win it, and then defeat Ding Liren in the next world championship. Yup. Totally gonna happen. 🙃
THE "GOOD JOB, YOU MADE IT TO THE END" PART OF THE BLOG
Good job, you made it to the end. Thanks so much for reading this random sort of prediction blog of mine. I was originally gonna post about my otb performance in the 2023 Chicago Open... and then I couldn't go (failed to get a hotel room...) so I had to change plans. Thought it'd be fun to write about underdogs so I threw this together today. Hopefully it was ok. I met my goal of posting one blog per month so I'm happy lol
The next blog should be in 3-4 weeks but who knows? Maybe otb, maybe not. I make no promises, but I'll post *something* in June for sure. Anywho, that's all I got for now. Thanks for reading, I'll cyall in the comments!
