Bombastic Chess Revelations Through Meticulous Data Analysis

Dear readers,

Before I get to the text itself, I feel the need to announce to those who do not yet know, that I have recently been awarded the "Top Blogger" stamp on Chess.com. This can be seen from the new cool banner that the staff has added to my profile page. Even though it will mean no practical changes in the frequency and quality of the writing, which I have always tried to keep at its best regardless of any status, it is still a nice sign of success and recognition of the hard work, so I was very happy to receive the news.

I would like to thank you all for reading, commenting, participating, sharing your thoughts either here or privately, and most importantly, for always motivating me to keep writing and bringing you some nice and interesting content. Also, thanks for all the congratulatory messages. Be sure that if you are happy for me, it already means that you are part of this achievement.

Now, I hope you enjoy the following text, which was written before I received this pleasant surprise!

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One of the most powerful tools we can use to analyze and understand our universe is statistics and data interpretation. As an IT professional, I've always been fascinated by the powerful insights we can gain into the world by carefully evaluating the available information, trusting the numbers much more than our mere intuition or impressions, which can often betray us.

This is also an essential part of the scientific method, and unless you're a conspiracy nut, which I really don't expect from chess players, we know that humanity would not be where it is today without our incredible technological advances, only possible by always relying on solid data that has increased our knowledge through years and years of incessant quest to broaden our horizons.

So, in order to better understand the reality of chess, I decided to do some research of my own, and the results were absolutely surprising. Below I present some of the conclusions I've reached, which will probably blow your mind as much as it has mine, changing the way you watch and follow the game.

Before you go any further, please be aware that what is seen cannot be unseen, and that the truth about the world will make you never perceive it the same way again. This is your last chance to decide whether you prefer the red or the blue pill. If you continue, it's at your own risk.

1)      Fabiano Caruana is an Italian biomass-powered robot.

Yes, you read it correctly! Many have always believed that Caruana could not be human, given his incredible memory for thousands of opening lines, his sharp calculation in extremely difficult positions, and his ability to stay calm under the most stressful situations. All these factors have always led the community to suspect that he is some kind of cyborg, created to dominate the chess world. However, nothing has ever been proven against him, until now...

Here I present some irrefutable evidence that Caruana is in fact a robot developed in Italy, perhaps with the help of the U.S. government in a secret deal to change his federation after a while. My deduction is that Italy comes with the energy, while the USA was responsible for part of the technology development. Driven by the growing production of biomass power, he was able to outperform everyone at the 2014 Sinquefield Cup, reaching his highest rating in history. Unfortunately, the stagnation in the production of this type of energy in the European country meant that his level could not continue to grow as planned.

You don't believe me? Well, let me throw the data in your face that makes it undeniable! Below is a table showing the evolution of Caruana's FIDE rating over the years. Next to it, we have the amount of biomass power produced in Italy over the same period.

And what happens when we plot it on a graph?

I see you finally get it. How else can you explain that such a pathetic player, who could not even reach 2700 (pff, loser!) before 2010, suddenly became one of the best of his era?

Obviously, the Italian Chess Federation realized that their robot needed more power to reach its maximum potential and convinced the government to produce more and more kW of energy from biomass resources. Now that they reached its peak, they must deal with the inevitable decline.

The use of biomass also explains how “he” can sometimes do such a good job of pretending to be a human like us. If the energy came from fossil fuels or wind power, for example, this part of the task would be much more difficult, exposing the fraud to anyone.

Do you still think this is just a coincidence? Fine, that is exactly what Caruana and his developers want you to believe. They may be able to fool some, but not Vanessa Holmes!

2)      Young prodigies contribute to a better environment in Romania.

Sorry, I had to start with the most controversial one, so now it will be easier for you to understand the rest. Being sure that you can already trust me and my data after the evidence shown in the first topic, I can now explain how some stubborn old players who refuse to retire and insist on playing high-level chess are destroying the environment in Eastern Europe!

Yes, I know it sounds absurd at first glance, but that is what I am here for: To show you the truth hidden in everyday events that make us not suspect the facts right in front of us. You may think I am crazy, but soon you will be grateful to me for opening your eyes.

As you can see, I checked the age of all players who have won the FIDE World Rapid Championships since 2012. Then, in a simple comparison with the amount of jet fuel used in Romania, one of the most polluting substances today, which emits a huge volume of CO2, I concluded that the descendants of Dracula already know who to blame in case of possible future climate changes there.

Or plot it to make it easier to visualize:

In fact, if you are a passionate supporter of environmental causes, you should encourage FIDE to cancel this tournament once and for all, because the year in which it was not held was also the year in which less jet fuel was used. Some brainless people might argue that this is due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions, but this simple and naive explanation does not tell why the consumption was much lower when Abdusattorov won and reached its peak exactly in the years when some veteran players ended up at the top.

To me, the explanation is obvious. We all know that the younger generation is much more concerned about the environment and the consequences of global warming for their own future. When they see decrepit old men winning chess tournaments, they feel intellectually inferior and therefore less encouraged to fight for what they believe in.

In Romania, where the social hierarchy of respect for elders is very strong, it is only when a young person proves his intelligence can surpass that of the previous generation, that the boys and girls feel confident to stand up for their causes, reduce pollution, and contribute to a better and sustainable future. 

Shame on you, Ivanchuk and Anand!

3)      Rafael Leitão is the therapist for Dallas Cowboys fans.

The first two revelations were very serious and perhaps even dangerous for me, so now I want to balance it with something a little less critical, but still mind-blowing. If you follow my blog regularly, you already know that my favorite chess YouTube channel is run by Brazilian GM Rafael Leitão, so I couldn't help but wonder what dark truth lies behind his views.

The idea was simple: to check which of his videos had the most views each year, and to see what the cause was, or what it caused in our world. After seeing the conclusion I came to, you will be forced to realize that no other explanation can be reasonable.

Basically, I found that the number of views he gets is inextricably linked to the defensive performance of the most famous NFL (National Football League) franchise, the Dallas Cowboys. Below you can see the data that supports my logical statement.

The graph makes it easier to follow the reasoning.

I must admit that at first, I did not understand exactly what was going on. Maybe the members of the defense were spending too much time watching his funny critics instead of practicing for the games and studying the next opponent? Sure, that would certainly be possible, but the defense of an American football team only has 11 players, or 22 if you count the substitutes, so how could it make a difference among so many thousands of views? It really was a mystery.

But then I had an epiphany, and everything became crystal clear! How could I not have noticed it before? Obviously, the explanation is the other way around. It is all about the fans. After a well-played game with a good performance of their defense, allowing few points to the opposing team, they feel happy and satisfied, able to enjoy some time with their families, rope bulls, play with their children, and so on.

However, after a disastrous game and a humiliating defeat, there is only one way for our Texans friends to de-stress a bit: open YouTube, choose a popular video of Leitão, and enjoy his snide criticism of the chess masters, just as they would like to do with the football players of their beloved team.

So, Rafael, if you want your videos to go viral, I would start thinking of a way to weaken the Cowboys’ defense. Some voodoo against Micah Parsons, their best defender, might be a good idea.

4)      Magnus Carlsen has a secret analysis team at the University of Wyoming.

Did you really think that Carlsen was so good that he could actually defeat the biomass robot alone? Come on, don't be so naive. The Norwegian hides his secrets too, but nothing gets past Vanessa Poirot, the best chess detective the world has ever heard of.

I wondered how Carlsen could be so good that he could even beat the Cyborg. Digging up some information about his rating, I found out that he did not do it by himself, but with the help of a huge anonymous team based at the University of Wyoming.

But how can these people work for Magnus for so long without anyone ever suspecting it? Quite simply, they are disguised as civil engineering students! While their teachers and colleagues think that they are there to study and get their diplomas, the truth is that they do not pay the slightest attention to classes, but spend a lot of time in their secret headquarters analyzing positions and giving new ideas to Carlsen, making him the best in the world.

Don't believe me? Then please see for yourself.

The pattern is clear, don't you think?

My conclusion is that Carlsen's sudden decision to forfeit the World Championship title and basically retire from classical control games likely has something to do with internal problems that this confidential organization has been facing. It was not difficult to find out that probably some important directors suspected what was happening in their university and decided to do a “general restructuring”, which seriously affected Magnus and his resources.

I am sure that now you have no more questions about where the center of chess excellence in the world is or was. One might wonder how they could have graduated in such a difficult field as civil engineering if they did not really dedicate themselves to the course, but this thought is nothing more than a joke.

After all, anyone who can understand what Carlsen is thinking and give him ideas for his games will evidently laugh at any engineering exam and solve it in less than half an hour without any effort, deducing everything on the spot with no prior study needed.

My next goal is to do the same investigation into his rapid and blitz performances, and soon I will also reveal where he gets his strategies from. I strongly believe that a tower control employee at Auckland Airport is somehow involved and... Ops, forget it!

5)      Kiwi chess players are afraid of turbulence.

Working in the aviation sector, I expected that in the middle of 2024, no one would still be afraid of a little turbulence and should know pretty well that bad weather is not capable of bringing down modern airplanes. However, I was extremely disappointed to find that New Zealand chess players still have this kind of irrational fear.

But how can I affirm it so strongly? Don't they fly around the world to play different tournaments all over the flat earth? Oops... globe, but that is a topic for another time. Well, yes, I thought so too, but I had to accept the truth when I looked at the undeniable evidence that the data showed me. The saddest part is that this pattern has been with us since 2010, and yet it seems that not only have we not been able to cope, but the situation has actually gotten worse. 

"Vanessa, what the hell are you talking about? I doubt there is any proof of such a thing! Stop being a conspiracy theorist!". Okay, then you leave me no choice but to show you what I mean, so please pay attention to the following data:

Now look at what happens when we plot on the graph.

I explain. New Zealand is an isolated island and there are relatively few flights from here to most countries in the world. Therefore, a very common way to travel is to first fly to Australia, usually to Sydney, where the most important airport is located. It is so obvious that when our team for the Olympiads travels together to participate in this important event, they must first catch a connecting flight in Australia's largest city.

Evidently, the more it rains at the airport, the more turbulence the planes have to fight during the landing procedure, and this undoubtedly activates their panic and makes them lose concentration on what is really important. It is no coincidence that in 2022, when we had the heaviest rains in SYD, we also had our worst performance in the Olympiads.

If I were the New Zealand Chess Federation, I would immediately ask the Australian government to move Sydney Airport to the middle of the desert, preferably to Alice Springs. The passengers will have to drive about 29 hours or take a train trip of more than 3 days to reach their final destination, but they will surely understand that it is for a good cause.

6)      Super-GMs pollute New York City's air indiscriminately.

Before I explain this one, I need to clarify what a Super-GM is, because I think not everyone is aware of it. Although this title does not officially exist, it is often used to refer to those GMs who have surpassed the 2700 rating barrier, a feat that very few are able to achieve, even among the strongest professional players. It is not an exaggeration to say that they are geniuses of the sport.

I then decided to take a closer look at this particularly interesting group of people and discovered a curious thing that they probably hoped to hide forever. Unfortunately for them, Vanessa Dupin is around, and she would never let them get away with their misdeeds!

The first step was to check how many Super-GMs there were in the world in January of each year, an easy task. After that, it is not difficult to understand that the behavior of these numbers is linked to another very intriguing factor, undeniably and absolutely.

Here is what I found:

And when I crossed the information... Oh my God!

They will try to argue that it is just a coincidence, that many of them have never been to New York, and a thousand other arguments that sound reasonable at first glance, but don't let these bastards fool you! I am here to explain and expose this scam that is ruining the lives of so many New Yorkers.

As we all know, the higher the rating, the more money a GM tends to make in tournament prizes. And where do they spend all that money? Tell me, what city in the world is better than NYC to go shopping and buy some fancy stuff for them? You might think of many, but trust my word, there is none.

They go there when there are no big tournaments to play, disguise themselves as "normal" rich people (because we all know that chess players are widely recognized by anyone on the street), rent luxurious sports cars that emit a lot of pollution, make the factories around the area produce much more to meet the absurdly increasing demand for their products, and even smoke expensive Cuban cigars to flaunt their wealth.

People of New York, if you are tired of the poor air quality in your city, take justice into your own hands and personally go to the next high-level chess tournament to teach them the lesson they deserve!

7)      Conclusion:

Now, for the conclusion, let me get more serious about this topic and discuss how statistics can be used to deceive us. As you should know, everything I wrote above is nothing but big bullshit, written only for fun and entertainment. If that was not clear to you, it is now.

By using some techniques like finding the 'r' correlation measure of the data, manipulating the lower and upper bounds in the graphs, and choosing the time range that better fits what I want to affirm, it is possible to make absurd and unrelated things look like they have some causal connection. This is the famous "cherry picking" so often used by conspiracy theorists.

In the case of this text, everything is extremely exaggerated and nonsense, making it clear that there is no true cause-and-effect relationship. However, there are cases that are harder to recognize, and they are deliberately presented in a very confusing way with the exact intention of deceiving people. This is one of the reasons why it is so important to learn math and statistics for your life, no matter what you work with. Of course, I am not saying that you must become a specialist, but at least have the basic concepts and avoid being fooled by people with bad intentions.

This is not only true for conspiracy theories or fake news, which involve mass manipulation, but also for personal examples in our daily lives, like the YouTuber who claims to have the secret formula for making money fast and safely; the betting game that will make you rich although you have less than a 30% chance of winning each time you play; the "interest-free" installment plan, which costs twice as much as if you had paid cash; and many other examples.

Therefore, stay aware, learn how the data can be handled and used to confuse you, and most importantly, always think calmly, with a cool head, and evaluate everything before making any critical decision. Their most secret weapon is to use our desperation and eagerness not to miss a big chance to manipulate us.

If you have made it to the end, thank you for reading! I hope you had fun and learned some interesting new things about the game we all love, finally coming out of the cave and ready for the real world of chess. Or do you have another explanation for the facts I have presented? I would love to hear you try...