5. ... c5. What's so great about making the queen move again? This move hinders the mobility of your f8 bishop and concededs the d5 square to white.
"7. ... d5. Looking to open up the center even more" Why are you trying to open the center? This move seems to just give away a pawn.
"I'm down a pawn... but chances are still fairly even." Why would chances be even if you're down a pawn. I would say that white has a good chance to win and black is struggling to make a comeback.
"16. ... Rxd5 seizes the open d file." Taking a file is only worth it if you can keep it and use to to invade on the 7th rank (sometimes an invasion on the 6th or 8th is useful to). In this case, there's no way to keep control of the file as you saw in the game.
18. ... Rc8 is a mistake, but 18. ... Re8 won't save the game either. 19. Bf4 Re6 20. Rxd6 Rxd6 21. Bxd6 Kxd6 22. a4 leaves white with a winning K and pawn ending. The extra pawn is huge in this posiottion. (Even more precise for white is 20. a4 and trading the pieces next since black has no productive moves as a resul tof the pin). 18. ... Ke6 might have been a chance to do better, but white's extra pawn will still be the most important factor in the upcoming endgame.
And my opponent punished me for it.