Hikaru claimed that the highest someone could get if they started as an adult was 1500.
I told him I thought that was too low, and he ended up replying to me (this was on reddit) doubling down, saying that in his experience he's never met someone who has done it. They always start young then get back into chess later.
I think that's nonsense, and 1500 is too low, but it's interesting how low rated players tend to think anything is possible while Hikaru is at the other extreme.
1500 OTB by the way.
I mean he mainly frequents the circle of top chess players. Those guys all started young.
It has to be a huge exaggeration.
For starters, I think Stjepan Tomic (Hanging pawns) didn't play as a kid (I am not completely sure, but I think he talked about it in some podcast. Now I might be mistaken, but I am sure there are a lot of people who started late that are significantly over 1 500 OTB.
This has to be the case especially since the chess boom in 2020. And if somehow playing chess would magically become profitable (say you are more or less guaranteed to have a certain income when you hit 2 200 OTB, better income when you hit 2 300, etc.), some people who started late would emerge. How high would they be able to get... who knows.
But as is, it is highly unlikely that such individual will emerge. Optimissed said that IM is highly unlikely as well, and he is probably correct, because apart from a great 2 400 rating, one has to have 3 great tournaments, and that requires a lot of money from some adult improver.
I don't know whether Hikaru would count me, because technically I played a few games with my dad before I was 10... but my dad didn't know all the rules, and I played fewer than 10 games before my 18th birthday, so I like to say I started as an adult.
After playing very nearly every day for 3 years (mostly trash blitz online, but I also solved puzzles and tried to learn some things) I went to my first tournament at age 21, and after a few tournaments my rating had stabilized at 1300 USCF.
I've often told the story of a retired man in his 60s who joined our chess club as a beginner. He also got to 1300 USCF, but it took him about 5 years.
So yeah... 1500 is pretty low for the absolute limit of an adult beginner.
For instance I don't count myself starting late because I learned the game at age 7-8 and played it with my friends and family from time to time. At my best, before I stopped playing it, I was probably something equivalent to 800 - 1 000 today.
Then 2020. happened and I got back to it, I was 1 200 inside 2 weeks of playing with the help of some basic videos and whatnot.
But you, I think you are as close to an adult improver (who basically started in adulthood) as it gets. Maybe moving the pieces around as a kid helped you slightly (to me a little bit more, I admit I had some of the basics down), but I don't think it is impactful enough in your case to not be a proof that you can get a lot higher than 1 500 if you start late.
@nklristic
You make great points and I completely agree that there is no incentive to do so.
But still I wonder. Take ballet for example. It is believed to be impossible to reach the same level as other professionals if you only start after the age of twenty. Simply because your body is no longer flexible enough. Couldn't it be the same with your brain (or similar)?
And if somehow playing chess would magically become profitable...
Maybe the magic is in streaming? If someone starts late and gets really good, and documents their process, maybe they would be able to make a living from it?
Well, I didn't say you could ever get to world class level and go for 2 700 or something like that. And most of the people would fail to get anywhere near 2 500.
I am just saying that if there was a real incentive for someone to get to 2 500, I think that some person talented enough to get to let's say 2 700 - 2 800 if he started as a kid, could possibly emerge as an adult improver and get to 2 500 (after all, the world is a pretty big place and there are some incredible people in it). But as is, it seems unlikely.
As for streaming, sure, there are people that could support themselves that way (and some people are earning a lot probably), but it takes time away from chess learning, and it would probably prevent one from achieving GM level of play.
Plus, streaming is not a sure thing in terms of making money. In a normal type of 9 to 5 job, you get some steady income. Streaming is not like that. One can get really wealthy while most will not earn much if at all. So another reason that would be a deterrent for a lot of people.
In order to get to that GM level, one would have to focus a lot of effort into it. Streaming is basically a full time job as well (for successful streamers, they probably work significantly more than 8 hours a day in total).
Let's take the example of IM Levy Rozman. He semi seriously made an effort to go back to OTB play and try to be a GM. But as a full time streamer, he actually lost some rating points, as he just doesn't have the time to make a real, serious effort.
Someone starting from scratch would have it much tougher than him in that regard.