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Could a 2000 rated player beat Magnus Carlsen?

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chessredpanda

Possibly but hard

CP6033

well it depends, in a simul yes, in blitz, yes, in classical....i seriously doubt it

MSteen

Only if a miracle occurred. Magnus would have to be drunk, exhausted, and distracted--all at the same time.

CP6033

lets put it this way, could a 1000 player beat and 1850?

komaromy31
CP6033 wrote:

lets put it this way, could a 1000 player beat and 1850?

Let's not put it that way. The difference between 2000 and 2850 is magnitudes larger.

chessredpanda

well lets start with standard

CP6033
komaromy31 wrote:
CP6033 wrote:

lets put it this way, could a 1000 player beat and 1850?

Let's not put it that way. The difference between 2000 and 2850 is magnitudes larger.

do you remeber how bad 1000 players are? when i was 1300 i beat 1000 in 15 moves, maybe the difference between 1000 and 2000....

komaromy31
CP6033 wrote:
komaromy31 wrote:
CP6033 wrote:

lets put it this way, could a 1000 player beat and 1850?

Let's not put it that way. The difference between 2000 and 2850 is magnitudes larger.

do you remeber how bad 1000 players are? when i was 1300 i beat 1000 in 15 moves, maybe the difference between 1000 and 2000....

I've made the improvement from 1000, to 1200, to 1400, to 1600, to 1800, to 2000, to now 2100 OTB. The rise to 2400 will be harder than all those combined, and I can't begin to imagine how much more time I would have to put in to hit even low GM. There is ZERO chance of a 2000 player beating Carlsen.

Scottrf

Magnus loses fewer than 5 classical games a year. He didn't lose a single game in the World Championship.

It might be possible, but it's incredibly unlikely. In a 200 game match, I would bet on the 2000 not taking a single game rather than them scoring 1 win or more.

EDIT: I've realised I'm probably too optimistic about the 2000's chances here.

Mandy711
CP6033 wrote:

well it depends, in a simul yes, in blitz, yes, in classical....i seriously doubt it

Possible in simul only. Blitz, impossible.  

CP6033
Mandy711 wrote:
CP6033 wrote:

well it depends, in a simul yes, in blitz, yes, in classical....i seriously doubt it

Possible in simul only. Blitz, impossible. Even in blindfold handicap, impossible.

it's possible, not likely though

Mandy711

My edit was too late :)

Ranx0r0x

The highest the table below goes up to is a 677 rating point difference.  At that level the probabiligy is 99% that the higher rated player would win.  Would Magnus win?  A player rated significantly less than him at 2,677 would beat a 2,000 rated player 99% of the time.  It isn't even worth calculating what an extra 150 points or so would do to that probability.  It would just make it even more decimal points of certitude like 99.99999% certain that Magnus would win.

Rating expectancies vs. differences
P D P D P D P D P D
    .99 677     .79 230     .59 65     .39 -80     .19 -251
    .98 589     .78 220     .58 57     .38 -87     .18 -262
    .97 538     .77 211     .57 50     .37 -95     .17 -273
    .96 501     .76 202     .56 43     .36 -102     .16 -284
    .95 470     .75 193     .55 36     .35 -110     .15 -296
    .94 444     .74 184     .54 29     .34 -117     .14 -309
    .93 422     .73 175     .53 21     .33 -125     .13 -322
    .92 401     .72 166     .52 14     .32 -133     .12 -335
    .91 383     .71 158     .51 7     .31 -141     .11 -351
    .90 366     .70 149     .50 0     .30 -149     .10 -366
    .89 351     .69 141     .49 -7     .29 -158     .09 -383
    .88 335     .68 133     .48 -14     .28 -166     .08 -401
    .87 322     .67 125     .47 -21     .27 -175     .07 -422
    .86 309     .66 117     .46 -29     .26 -184     .06 -444
    .85 296     .65 110     .45 -36     .25 -193     .05 -470
    .84 284     .64 102     .44 -43     .24 -202     .04 -501
    .83 273     .63 95     .43 -50     .23 -211     .03 -538
    .82 262     .62 87     .42 -57     .22 -220     .02 -589
    .81 251     .61 80     .41 -65     .21 -230     .01 -677
    .80 240     .60 72     .40 -72     .20 -240
enjaytee

just shows how ridiculously good these guys are. A 2000 player basically has no chance of even a draw, white or black. 

InfiniteFlash

No.

In every game a 2000 like me would be lost by move 25

InfiniteFlash

2000s aren't good at chess btw

When you reach International master strength, you are a good chess player.

You have no idea how out of league we are lol

WanderingPuppet

so a 2200 player statistically would be expected to score only 1 pt in 100 games versus Carlsen.  i would be upset to get this score even against a strong chess program.

Ziggyblitz

InfiniteFlash wrote:

2000s aren't good at chess btw

When you reach International master strength, you are a good chess player.

You have no idea how out of league we are lol

____________________________________________________________

True, but when we see an average GM demolish club players in a simul, we do get a glimps.

zazen5

In chess 960 absolutely.  In chess you are studying fixed patterns that occur over and over again.  I see this all the time when I am studying the Accelerated Dragon book I have in the basement.  Most study material acts as if ideas are things, objects, or some proven theory that must always work.  Perhaps that is the case in conventional chess.  However in 960 good luck.  How is he going to study all the openings?  Cannot be done because there isnt any material out there and there are so many possibilities.  So what you have left with is analysis, intuition and how smart the person really is, not just how much they can study.  I study chess primarily because it keeps me grounded, not necessarily because it makes me smarter.  Sure Carlsen may beat many people.  But consider this:  There is a reason why GM's dont play lower rated players and it isnt because they arent challenged.  It is because playing lower rated players you pick up bad habits primarily.  So by not playing GM's protect their mind from the lower rated players.  This concept is something to examine carefully.

SocialPanda
zazen5 wrote:

There is a reason why GM's dont play lower rated players and it isnt because they arent challenged.  It is because playing lower rated players you pick up bad habits primarily.  So by not playing GM's protect their mind from the lower rated players.  This concept is something to examine carefully.

GMs play against lower rated players.

That´s how they win the Open Tournaments.